Hamburger SV 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hamburger SV face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hamburger SV at home: 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hamburger SV 1.40 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Hamburger SV have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2024, ended Hamburger SV 1–1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 64% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 64% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.04 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.243 / defence 0.887 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.004 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.566. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 50 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 50.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 51% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.97 | Draw 4.01 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.11. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (2.04 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.44 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 80% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 17 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 December 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 51% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Hamburger SV 2.04 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.243 / def 0.887 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.004 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.566 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.40
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hamburger SV 5 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 17) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 51% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 50 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
51%
1.97
25%
4.01
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.44
1.40
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
3%
31.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.40 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 50 games, going 23W 14D 13L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.40 PPG from 50 outings (19W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.66 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 14W 5D 5L across their last 24 home games, a 1.96 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.48 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 23W 14D 13L in their last 50 games (1.66 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 19W 13D 18L in their last 50 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.96 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Dec 2024, when Hamburger SV won Hamburger SV 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 58%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hamburger SV) and 46% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 83% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 5-0 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.04 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 51% | Draw 25% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.66 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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