Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Fortuna Düsseldorf take on VfL Bochum.

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Analysis

VfL Bochum make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Form

Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

VfL Bochum have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

VfL Bochum's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, VfL Bochum are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and VfL Bochum's last 10 away games) — Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Bochum in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Sep 2025, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 1–0 VfL Bochum — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus VfL Bochum 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | VfL Bochum 46%). Note also that VfL Bochum surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 xG and VfL Bochum 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.804 / defence 0.901 | VfL Bochum attack 0.848 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.362. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 57 games and VfL Bochum's last 23.

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 34% | VfL Bochum 31%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.93 | Draw 2.91 | VfL Bochum 3.18. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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