Eintracht Braunschweig 1-4 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf meet at Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Eintracht Braunschweig's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Eintracht-Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Fortuna Düsseldorf arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 1–3 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Eintracht Braunschweig — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 59% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 57% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 0.93 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.791 / defence 1.078 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.204 / defence 0.689. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.315. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack strength of 0.791 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence strength of 0.689 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 44 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Fortuna Düsseldorf (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Eintracht Braunschweig 60% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 0.93 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.791 / def 1.078 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.204 / def 0.689 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 4 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 19% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.79x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.20x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
19%
5.19
26%
3.86
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.63
1.71
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
5.19
19%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
3%
28.61
22%
4.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.71 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 10W 11D 23L from 44 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortuna Düsseldorf, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 12L across 44 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortuna Düsseldorf by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Eintracht Braunschweig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record stands at 8W 4D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 22W 10D 12L in their last 44 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.38 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 5-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 57%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 52% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 43% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fortuna Düsseldorf run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-4 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 0.93 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf outscored their 1.71 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.79 / defence 1.08 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.20 / defence 0.69, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 19% | Draw 26% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 57%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.