Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus SV Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 33). Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record over their last 10 games: 3W 0D 7L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fortuna Düsseldorf are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Elversberg (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SV Elversberg are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 90% of SV Elversberg's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SV Elversberg edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–1 SV Elversberg — a SV Elversberg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 59% versus SV Elversberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | SV Elversberg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.51 xG and SV Elversberg 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.943 / defence 1.177 | SV Elversberg attack 1.182 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.270. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 66 games and SV Elversberg's last 66.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 43%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.13 | Draw 3.93 | SV Elversberg 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.51 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 33 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.51 / SV Elversberg 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.943 / def 1.177 | SV Elversberg attack 1.182 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.77
SV Elversberg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 33) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 32% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.94x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (1.18x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 66 games and SV Elversberg's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
32%
3.13
25%
3.93
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.28
1.77
SV Elversberg xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
5%
18.34
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.77 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 24W 15D 27L from 66 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 33W 17D 16L across 66 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fortuna Düsseldorf heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 13W 8D 12L from their last 33 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 14W 11D 8L across their last 33 away games, a 1.61 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.89 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 24W 15D 27L in their last 66 games (1.32 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 33W 17D 16L in their last 66 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.42 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won SV Elversberg 0-5 Fortuna Düsseldorf on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
2
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, SV Elversberg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 48% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 58% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 48% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 73% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Elversberg 3-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.51 xG and SV Elversberg 1.77 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against SV Elversberg attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 43%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, SV Elversberg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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