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Fortuna Düsseldorf cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Elversberg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SV Elversberg 3-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.51 xG and SV Elversberg 1.77 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.94 / defence 1.18 against SV Elversberg attack 1.18 / defence 1.00, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 43%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Fortuna Düsseldorf win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, SV Elversberg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

SV Elversberg's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.32. Form was overturned, with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights