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Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SSV Ulm 1846 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SSV Ulm 1846 3-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.31 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.72 / defence 1.01, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% | Draw 25% | SSV Ulm 1846 28%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, SSV Ulm 1846 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights