Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-0 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Preußen Münster encounter.

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Match Analysis

Fortuna Düsseldorf host Preußen Münster at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Preußen Münster — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Preußen Münster's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, Fortuna Düsseldorf have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 70% of Preußen Münster's (from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and Preußen Münster's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, Preußen Münster 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–1 Preußen Münster — a Fortuna Düsseldorf win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).

Preußen Münster in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% and Preußen Münster 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | Preußen Münster 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Fortuna Düsseldorf surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Preußen Münster have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 62% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Preußen Münster surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Fortuna Düsseldorf recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 47% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.30 xG and Preußen Münster 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.885 / defence 0.980 | Preußen Münster attack 0.810 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.352. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 55 games and Preußen Münster's last 55.

Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Draw 31% | Preußen Münster 29%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.49 | Draw 3.24 | Preußen Münster 3.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% (last 10 home games) | Preußen Münster 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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