Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 Preußen Münster – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preußen Münster at 34%, yet in-form Eintracht Braunschweig provide a compelling counter-argument — this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Preußen Münster travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Preußen Münster — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Preußen Münster have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Eintracht Braunschweig are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for Preußen Münster and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2025, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 1–3 Preußen Münster — a Preußen Münster win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Preußen Münster in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Braunschweig 58% and Preußen Münster 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 54% | Preußen Münster 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Eintracht Braunschweig surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Preußen Münster have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 59% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 xG and Preußen Münster 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.794 / defence 1.091 | Preußen Münster attack 0.753 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.341. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.794 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.06. Preußen Münster's attack rating of 0.753 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 57 games and Preußen Münster's last 57.
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 34% | Preußen Münster 34%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.13 | Draw 2.94 | Preußen Münster 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 63% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 home games) | Preußen Münster 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 34% | Preußen Münster 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 / Preußen Münster 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.794 / def 1.091 | Preußen Münster attack 0.753 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Preußen Münster xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster FAQs
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 2 Preußen Münster.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 32% chance of winning, Preußen Münster a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.79x the league average against Preußen Münster's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Preußen Münster's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 57 games and Preußen Münster's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preußen Münster Win
32%
3.13
34%
2.94
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.16
1.10
Preußen Münster xG
3.13
32%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.10 for Preußen Münster, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 57 games, going 16W 16D 25L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Preußen Münster sit at 1.04 PPG from 57 outings (13W 20D 24L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Braunschweig on 1.12 PPG, Preußen Münster on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across their last 28 home games, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Preußen Münster have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 28 away games (6W 7D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Braunschweig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Preußen Münster are on 1.18 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster in 63%.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig (Home) vs Preußen Münster (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
Preußen Münster
Blended
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster Form FAQs
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 16D 25L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Preußen Münster have gone 13W 20D 24L in their last 57 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Preußen Münster away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.39 PPG; Preußen Münster away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Preußen Münster have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Preußen Münster specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Eintracht Braunschweig
2
Draws
2
Preußen Münster
Recent Meetings
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 0, Preußen Münster have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster?
Preußen Münster have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 57%, Preußen Münster 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 57% (Preußen Münster). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Preußen Münster away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Eintracht Braunschweig vs Preußen Münster Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's games and 61% of Preußen Münster's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Eintracht Braunschweig's matches and 57% of Preußen Münster's.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Preußen Münster matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 64% of Preußen Münster's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Preußen Münster edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06 xG and Preußen Münster 1.10 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Preußen Münster outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Preußen Münster attack 0.75 / defence 0.86, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 32% | Draw 34% | Preußen Münster 34%, with Preußen Münster to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 54%, Preußen Münster 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Preußen Münster's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12 PPG, Preußen Münster 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preußen Münster win broke the near-deadlock. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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