Eintracht Braunschweig 1-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Hertha BSC (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Eintracht Braunschweig face Hertha BSC.

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Fixture Analysis

Eintracht Braunschweig welcome Hertha BSC to Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Sunday 19 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Hertha BSC — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form points away from home here. Hertha BSC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Eintracht Braunschweig's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

Hertha BSC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Nov 2025, ended Eintracht Braunschweig 0–1 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Hertha BSC have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Patterns

Eintracht Braunschweig in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 59% versus Hertha BSC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 52% | Hertha BSC 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG and Hertha BSC 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.782 / defence 1.080 | Hertha BSC attack 1.420 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.279. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.15. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack rating of 1.420, which lifts their away xG to 1.96. Data: built from Eintracht Braunschweig's last 63 games and Hertha BSC's last 63.

Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 55%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 4.87 | Draw 4.03 | Hertha BSC 1.83. The model has a clear lean to Hertha BSC (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.15 / 1.96) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 60% (last 10 away games).

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