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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Eintracht Braunschweig and Hertha BSC finished level at 1-1 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG and Hertha BSC 1.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hertha BSC landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Hertha BSC attack 1.42 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 21% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 55%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 52%, Hertha BSC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights