Dynamo Dresden 3-1 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Darmstadt 98 (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Dynamo Dresden face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion plays host to Dynamo Dresden versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time.
Current Form
Dynamo Dresden's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Dynamo Dresden at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, SV Darmstadt 98 are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Dynamo Dresden's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Dynamo Dresden's games and 70% of SV Darmstadt 98's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to SV Darmstadt 98, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2025, ended Dynamo Dresden 0–2 SV Darmstadt 98 — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Dynamo Dresden half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dynamo Dresden 78% and SV Darmstadt 98 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dynamo Dresden 74% | SV Darmstadt 98 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Dynamo Dresden surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 80% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 1.53 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.893 / defence 1.184 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.198 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.362. Data: built from Dynamo Dresden's last 23 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 57.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 29% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 46%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 3.43 | Draw 3.96 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.19. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.53 / 1.93) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Dynamo Dresden's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Dynamo Dresden 80% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 29% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 69% (No 31%) | xG Dynamo Dresden 1.53 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.893 / def 1.184 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.198 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 27 February 2026 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Dynamo Dresden 3 - 1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 29% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dynamo Dresden's attack rating (0.89) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.20x) against Dynamo Dresden's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.93.
These ratings are built from Dynamo Dresden's last 23 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
29%
3.43
25%
3.96
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
3.46
1.93
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
14%
6.90
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
4%
23.68
10%
10.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 1.93 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dynamo Dresden come into this having played 23 games, going 5W 7D 11L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.96 PPG from 23 outings (12W 9D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Dynamo Dresden — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Dynamo Dresden's home form reads 2W 3D 6L across their last 11 home games, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.36 points per game from their last 11 away games (3W 6D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Darmstadt 98's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dynamo Dresden are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.91 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Dresden have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games.
Defensively: SV Darmstadt 98 in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Dynamo Dresden (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dynamo Dresden
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Dynamo Dresden have gone 5W 7D 11L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 12W 9D 2L in their last 23 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Dresden at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Dresden at home: 0.82 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Dynamo Dresden or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Dresden have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Dynamo Dresden have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo Dresden have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Dynamo Dresden
0
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Dynamo Dresden have won 2, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: Dynamo Dresden 1-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dynamo Dresden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 82% for Dynamo Dresden, 64% for SV Darmstadt 98 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Dynamo Dresden and 64% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dynamo Dresden vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Dynamo Dresden's games and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Dynamo Dresden's matches and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Dynamo Dresden and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Dynamo Dresden's recent matches and 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Dresden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Dresden beat SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 1.53 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.93 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo Dresden beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.20 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 29% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 46%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Dynamo Dresden win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Dresden 74%, SV Darmstadt 98 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Dresden's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Dynamo Dresden winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo Dresden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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