🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Arminia Bielefeld run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Hertha BSC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arminia Bielefeld beat Hertha BSC 6-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.25 xG and Hertha BSC 1.65 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Hertha BSC attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 45%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, Hertha BSC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Hertha BSC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights