Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hertha BSC travel to SchücoArena to take on Arminia Bielefeld in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 34). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Arminia Bielefeld's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Hertha BSC have recorded 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hertha BSC are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 60% of Hertha BSC's (from Arminia Bielefeld's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Hertha BSC 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 19 Dec 2025, ended Arminia Bielefeld 1–1 Hertha BSC — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Hertha BSC trading profile (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 64% versus Hertha BSC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 52% | Hertha BSC 46%). Note also that Hertha BSC surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Arminia Bielefeld recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.25 xG and Hertha BSC 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.875 / defence 1.087 | Hertha BSC attack 1.204 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.258. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack rating of 1.204, which lifts their away xG to 1.65. Data: built from Arminia Bielefeld's last 33 games and Hertha BSC's last 67.
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 45%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 3.62 | Draw 3.66 | Hertha BSC 2.22. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Arminia Bielefeld's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Arminia Bielefeld 70% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.25 / Hertha BSC 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.875 / def 1.087 | Hertha BSC attack 1.204 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Hertha BSC xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC FAQs
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Arminia Bielefeld 6 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 28% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Arminia Bielefeld's last 33 games and Hertha BSC's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
28%
3.62
27%
3.66
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.90
1.65
Hertha BSC xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
19%
5.19
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
5%
18.78
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.65 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 33 games, going 9W 9D 15L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Hertha BSC sit at 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (14W 9D 10L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Hertha BSC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across their last 16 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Hertha BSC have taken 1.75 points per game from their last 16 away games (8W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.39 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hertha BSC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
Arminia Bielefeld (Home) vs Hertha BSC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Arminia Bielefeld
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Form FAQs
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 9W 9D 15L in their last 33 games (1.09 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 14W 9D 10L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.44 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from January 2021. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 24 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2026, when Arminia Bielefeld won Arminia Bielefeld 6-1 Hertha BSC.
Arminia Bielefeld's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Arminia Bielefeld have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 October 2026: Hertha BSC 1-0 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 69%, Hertha BSC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Arminia Bielefeld and 62% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Arminia Bielefeld vs Hertha BSC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 50% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 62% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hertha BSC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 69% of Hertha BSC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arminia Bielefeld run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat Hertha BSC 6-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.25 xG and Hertha BSC 1.65 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld beat their projection by 4.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Hertha BSC attack 1.20 / defence 0.88, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 28% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 45%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Arminia Bielefeld win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 52%, Hertha BSC 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hertha BSC arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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