1. FC Nürnberg 2-0 SSV Ulm 1846 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Nürnberg vs SSV Ulm 1846 encounter.

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Match Analysis

1. FC Nürnberg host SSV Ulm 1846 at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SSV Ulm 1846 stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SSV Ulm 1846 away from home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, 1. FC Nürnberg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 0 for SSV Ulm 1846 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1. FC Nürnberg 2–1 SSV Ulm 1846 — a 1. FC Nürnberg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

SSV Ulm 1846 in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Nürnberg 67% and SSV Ulm 1846 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 67% | SSV Ulm 1846 48%). Note also that SSV Ulm 1846 surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while 1. FC Nürnberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.76 xG and SSV Ulm 1846 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.069 / defence 0.876 | SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.796 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.489. SSV Ulm 1846's attack rating of 0.796 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from 1. FC Nürnberg's last 55 games and SSV Ulm 1846's last 21.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 24% | SSV Ulm 1846 22%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86 | Draw 4.11 | SSV Ulm 1846 4.59. 1. FC Nürnberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, 1. FC Nürnberg are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 home games and SSV Ulm 1846's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% (last 10 home games) | SSV Ulm 1846 60% (last 10 away games).

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