SSV Ulm 1846 0-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Elversberg make the trip to Donaustadion to face SSV Ulm 1846 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SSV Ulm 1846 (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Donaustadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, SV Elversberg are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SSV Ulm 1846 1W, SV Elversberg 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with SSV Ulm 1846 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 59% versus SV Elversberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 46% | SV Elversberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 0.93 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.887 / defence 1.043 | SV Elversberg attack 1.077 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.433. SV Elversberg's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 22 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 56 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | SV Elversberg 1.92. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 70% | SV Elversberg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 0.93 / SV Elversberg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.887 / def 1.043 | SV Elversberg attack 1.077 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg?
SSV Ulm 1846 0 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 21% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Ulm 1846 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SSV Ulm 1846's attack at 0.89x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (1.08x) against SSV Ulm 1846's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 22/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.1%), 0-2 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
21%
4.87
27%
3.65
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.54
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
4.87
21%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
20%
5.00
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
4%
24.37
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 12.7 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.61 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.77 PPG on a 3W 8D 11L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg's form line: 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, 1.59 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Elversberg are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 0.90 PPG from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.82 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: SV Elversberg in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 3W 8D 11L in their last 22 games (0.77 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 0.90 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SSV Ulm 1846 or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Ulm 1846 have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Ulm 1846
1
Draws
0
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 0-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg?
SSV Ulm 1846 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Elversberg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Ulm 1846 70%, SV Elversberg 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SSV Ulm 1846) and 40% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 50%; SSV Ulm 1846 have failed to score in 30% of games; SV Elversberg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent matches and 30% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent games and 40% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at SSV Ulm 1846's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 23, as SSV Ulm 1846 and SV Elversberg drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 0.93 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.89 / defence 1.04 against SV Elversberg attack 1.08 / defence 0.72, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 21% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 52%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 46%, SV Elversberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.