🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Nürnberg and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 2-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 2.02 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.33 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.91 / defence 0.93 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.12 / defence 1.52, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 54% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 25%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights