Hansa Rostock 0-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ostseestadion plays host to Hansa Rostock versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Hansa Rostock are significantly better at Ostseestadion than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Kaiserslautern (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Hansa Rostock, 0.40 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hansa Rostock lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–3 with 1. FC Kaiserslautern winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
1. FC Kaiserslautern half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 40% versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 47% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.72 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.901 / defence 1.111 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.858 / defence 1.197. League average goals — home 1.598 / away 1.367. Data: 57 Hansa Rostock games / 57 1. FC Kaiserslautern games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 47% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 29%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3.45. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 70% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 47% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.72 / 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.901 / def 1.111 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.858 / def 1.197 | league avg home 1.598 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.30
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 47% chance of winning, 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Record (3 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.90) and 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack (0.86x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.24
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.03
1.30
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
5%
19.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.30 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Hansa Rostock have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 9D 30L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's form line: 17W 16D 24L from 57 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Kaiserslautern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.18 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hansa Rostock have posted 1.18 PPG from 28 outings (10W 3D 15L).
On the road, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 6W 9D 13L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are on 1.44 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 63%.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 18W 9D 30L in their last 57 games (1.11 PPG), while 1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 17W 16D 24L in their last 57 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Kaiserslautern away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.18 PPG; 1. FC Kaiserslautern away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Kaiserslautern won 0-3 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Kaiserslautern — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
3
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
From 4 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Hansa Rostock 0-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 46%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Hansa Rostock) and 54% (1. FC Kaiserslautern).
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 36% of games; 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Kaiserslautern away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 61% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 54% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Kaiserslautern tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, 1. FC Kaiserslautern in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Kaiserslautern run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat Hansa Rostock 0-3 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.72 xG and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.30 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.7 short of their projected output. 1. FC Kaiserslautern outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.90 / defence 1.11 against 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 0.86 / defence 1.20, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 47% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Kaiserslautern 29%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual 1. FC Kaiserslautern win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 47%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.11 PPG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Kaiserslautern win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.