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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Magdeburg and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 1-1 at Avnet-Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.52 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 2.09 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.37 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.12 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 27% | Draw 23% | SV Darmstadt 98 50%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.29 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights