1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Kaiserslautern face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Kaiserslautern host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Fritz Walter Stadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 14 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Kaiserslautern — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — 1. FC Kaiserslautern are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 1.10 PPG versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 7 H2H matches we hold have produced 4 wins for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended 1. FC Kaiserslautern 3–0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a 1. FC Kaiserslautern win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Kaiserslautern in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Kaiserslautern 60% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Kaiserslautern 67% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.266 / defence 1.069 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.340. 1. FC Kaiserslautern carry an above-average attack rating of 1.266 — their 2.50 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Kaiserslautern's projected output up. Data: built from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 55 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 55.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.69 | Draw 4.86 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.93. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Kaiserslautern (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 71% | Total xG 3.96. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.96 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% — both xG figures (2.50 / 1.46) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Kaiserslautern are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 76% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 90% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 71% (No 29%) | xG 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.266 / def 1.069 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Expected Goals
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
71%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Fritz Walter Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Fritz Walter Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Kaiserslautern a 59% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Kaiserslautern the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Kaiserslautern's attack at 1.27x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Kaiserslautern's last 55 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Kaiserslautern Win
59%
1.69
21%
4.86
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.50
1. FC Kaiserslautern xG
Total xG
3.96
1.46
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
8%
12.15
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
2%
59.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.50 expected goals for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 1.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.96.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent record stands at 24W 12D 19L from 55 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 27L across 55 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1. FC Kaiserslautern by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have managed 16W 6D 6L from their last 28 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record stands at 7W 5D 16L across their last 28 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Kaiserslautern come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Kaiserslautern are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.40 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Kaiserslautern have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 60%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1. FC Kaiserslautern (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Kaiserslautern
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have gone 24W 12D 19L in their last 55 games (1.53 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
1. FC Kaiserslautern's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at home: 1.93 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Kaiserslautern have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Sep 2025, when 1. FC Kaiserslautern won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-3 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
1. FC Kaiserslautern's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
1. FC Kaiserslautern
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Kaiserslautern have won 5, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
1. FC Kaiserslautern have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Kaiserslautern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Kaiserslautern at 79%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for 1. FC Kaiserslautern and 64% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Kaiserslautern home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's games and 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's matches and 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do 1. FC Kaiserslautern and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of 1. FC Kaiserslautern's recent matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Kaiserslautern edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Kaiserslautern beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at Fritz Walter Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Kaiserslautern 2.50 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.46 xG, a combined 3.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Kaiserslautern fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Kaiserslautern attack 1.27 / defence 1.07 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Kaiserslautern 59% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20%, with 1. FC Kaiserslautern to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Kaiserslautern 67%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Kaiserslautern's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Kaiserslautern arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Kaiserslautern (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 22
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →