Valenciennes 1-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Valenciennes welcome Auxerre to Stade du Hainaut. Kick-off is set for Monday 1 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Valenciennes have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes's home record at Stade du Hainaut: 1W 1D 4L from 6 Ligue 2 appearances (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.67 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Hainaut this season.
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's away record: 2W 3D 1L from 6 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Valenciennes) versus 1.60 (Auxerre). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Valenciennes in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 54% versus Auxerre 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 54% | Auxerre 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.12 xG and Auxerre 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.864 / defence 1.663 | Auxerre attack 0.813 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 0.904 / away 1.007. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Valenciennes's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Valenciennes games / 13 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 31% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 42%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Auxerre 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 67% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Monday 1 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 31% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Valenciennes 1.12 / Auxerre 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.864 / def 1.663 | Auxerre attack 0.813 / def 1.437 | league avg home 0.904 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Auxerre xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Auxerre kick off?
Valenciennes vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 1 November 2021 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Valenciennes 1 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Valenciennes vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Auxerre part of?
Valenciennes vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 31% chance of winning, Auxerre a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Valenciennes and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Valenciennes and Auxerre in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (0.86) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Valenciennes's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
31%
3.27
27%
3.65
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.48
1.36
Auxerre xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.74
14%
7.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.36 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valenciennes's recent record stands at 4W 3D 6L from 13 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 2L across 13 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valenciennes heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Valenciennes have managed 1W 1D 4L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.15 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Auxerre's away record stands at 2W 3D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valenciennes are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Auxerre in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 4W 3D 6L in their last 13 games (1.15 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 6W 5D 2L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 0.67 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Valenciennes or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valenciennes have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Auxerre in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Aug 2023, when Auxerre won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valenciennes's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valenciennes
1
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 0, Auxerre have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Auxerre 0-0 Valenciennes.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 67%, Auxerre 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Valenciennes and 50% for Auxerre. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre in 33%; Valenciennes have failed to score in 33% of games; Auxerre in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Valenciennes's games and 50% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valenciennes vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Valenciennes's matches and 50% of Auxerre's.
Do Valenciennes and Auxerre tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Auxerre edge out Valenciennes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Valenciennes 1-2 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.12 xG and Auxerre 1.36 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.86 / defence 1.66 against Auxerre attack 0.81 / defence 1.44, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 31% | Draw 27% | Auxerre 42%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 54%, Auxerre 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.15. Form held, and they took the win. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.