Dijon 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dijon at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dijon vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Paris FC travel to Stade Gaston-Gérard to take on Dijon. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 October 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dijon have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Dijon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dijon have posted 3W 1D 3L at Stade Gaston-Gérard — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Paris FC have posted 3W 0D 4L from 7 away outings — 1.29 PPG. Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Dijon carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Dijon in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Paris FC in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dijon 54% versus Paris FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dijon 46% | Paris FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dijon 1.28 xG and Paris FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dijon attack 1.024 / defence 1.198 | Paris FC attack 0.830 / defence 1.353. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Paris FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.353 — this is suppressing Dijon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Dijon games / 13 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 29%. Fair-value odds: Dijon 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Paris FC 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dijon as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dijon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dijon 57% | Paris FC 29% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dijon vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Gaston-Gérard • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dijon 40% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Dijon 1.28 / Paris FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Dijon attack 1.024 / def 1.198 | Paris FC attack 0.830 / def 1.353 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Dijon (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Dijon xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Paris FC xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dijon vs Paris FC kick off?
Dijon vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What was the final score in Dijon vs Paris FC?
Dijon 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Dijon vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gaston-Gérard.
What competition is Dijon vs Paris FC part of?
Dijon vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dijon vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Dijon a 40% chance of winning, Paris FC a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dijon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dijon vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dijon and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dijon vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Paris FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dijon and Paris FC in?
Dijon (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Paris FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Dijon's attack rating (1.02) and Paris FC's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Dijon's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dijon Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.27
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Dijon xG
Total xG
2.33
1.05
Paris FC xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.1 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dijon vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dijon and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Dijon and 1.05 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Dijon vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, Dijon have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 5W 1D 7L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dijon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC's form line: 5W 3D 5L from 13 games, 1.38 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dijon on 1.23 PPG, Paris FC on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Dijon have posted 1.43 PPG from 7 outings (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 3W 0D 4L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Dijon are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.23 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dijon
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dijon and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Dijon have gone 5W 1D 7L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 5W 3D 5L in their last 13 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dijon at home or Paris FC away?
Dijon's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dijon at home: 1.43 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dijon and Paris FC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dijon's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dijon
2
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dijon and Paris FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Dijon have won 0, Paris FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dijon and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Dijon and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dijon tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dijon 57%, Paris FC 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Dijon) and 43% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Paris FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dijon home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dijon play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dijon's recent matches and 29% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dijon vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Dijon's recent games and 43% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dijon and Paris FC tend to score early?
Dijon have had a goal before half-time in 29% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Paris FC defy the odds to beat Dijon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Dijon 0-1 at Stade Gaston-Gérard, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dijon 1.28 xG and Paris FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dijon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dijon attack 1.02 / defence 1.20 against Paris FC attack 0.83 / defence 1.35, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dijon 40% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 29%, with Dijon to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Paris FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dijon 46%, Paris FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dijon's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris FC's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dijon 1.23 PPG, Paris FC 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Dijon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.