Bastia 0-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bastia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bastia have posted 1W 5D 0L at Stade Armand-Césari — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari.
Amiens (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens away from home this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 46% versus Amiens 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 23% | Amiens 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 0.97 xG and Amiens 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 0.827 / defence 0.897 | Amiens attack 0.861 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Amiens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Bastia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Bastia games / 13 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 36% | Draw 36% | Amiens 28%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Amiens 3.57. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Bastia 50% | Amiens 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 36% | Draw 36% | Amiens 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Bastia 0.97 / Amiens 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 0.827 / def 0.897 | Amiens attack 0.861 / def 1.270 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Amiens xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Amiens kick off?
Bastia vs Amiens kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Bastia 0 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Bastia vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Amiens part of?
Bastia vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 36% chance of winning, Amiens a 28% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bastia and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bastia and Amiens in?
Bastia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Amiens (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.86x) against Bastia's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
36%
2.75
36%
2.81
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.78
0.81
Amiens xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 13.7 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.5%.
How many goals are Bastia and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Bastia and 0.81 for Amiens, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia come into this having played 13 games, going 2W 5D 6L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (2W 6D 5L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Bastia against 0.92 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Bastia's home form reads 1W 5D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.85 PPG overall — Bastia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.08 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Amiens in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 games (0.85 PPG), while Amiens have gone 2W 6D 5L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Amiens away?
Bastia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.33 PPG; Amiens away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bastia or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Amiens in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Bastia
5
Draws
4
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Amiens?
From 10 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Amiens have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Amiens?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 50%, Amiens 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bastia and 33% for Amiens.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Amiens in 33%; Bastia have failed to score in 33% of games; Amiens in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bastia's recent matches and 50% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bastia's recent games and 33% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Amiens tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Amiens in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bastia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia and Amiens finished level at 0-0 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 0.97 xG and Amiens 0.81 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bastia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Amiens landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 0.83 / defence 0.90 against Amiens attack 0.86 / defence 1.27, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 36% | Draw 36% | Amiens 28%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 23%, Amiens 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Amiens's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bastia 0.85 PPG, Amiens 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.