Sochaux 3-1 Nimes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sochaux vs Nimes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sochaux host Nimes at Stade Auguste-Bonal in Ligue 2 (matchday 9). Kick-off is Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Sochaux — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sochaux at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Nimes have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Nimes's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sochaux are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Sochaux, 1 for Nimes and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Apr 2022, ended Sochaux 3–1 Nimes — a Sochaux win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sochaux trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Nimes trading profile (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sochaux 44% versus Nimes 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sochaux 37% | Nimes 52%). Note also that Nimes surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Sochaux recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 71% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sochaux 1.90 xG and Nimes 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sochaux attack 1.170 / defence 0.789 | Nimes attack 1.076 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Nimes's defence rating of 1.298 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sochaux's projected output up. Sochaux have a tight defence (rating 0.789), which is pulling Nimes's projected output down. Data: built from Sochaux's last 46 games and Nimes's last 46.
Result probabilities: Sochaux 58% | Draw 23% | Nimes 19%. Fair-value odds: Sochaux 1.72 | Draw 4.41 | Nimes 5.18. The model has a clear lean to Sochaux (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sochaux at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sochaux 40% (last 10 home games) | Nimes 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sochaux vs Nimes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 9 | Venue: Stade Auguste-Bonal • Kick-off: Saturday 17 September 2022 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sochaux 58% | Draw 23% | Nimes 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sochaux 1.90 / Nimes 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sochaux attack 1.170 / def 0.789 | Nimes attack 1.076 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Sochaux xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Nimes xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sochaux vs Nimes FAQs
What time does Sochaux vs Nimes kick off?
Sochaux vs Nimes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What was the final score in Sochaux vs Nimes?
Sochaux 3 - 1 Nimes.
Where is Sochaux vs Nimes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Auguste-Bonal.
What competition is Sochaux vs Nimes part of?
Sochaux vs Nimes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 9) (France).
Who is favourite to win Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our statistical model gives Sochaux a 58% chance of winning, Nimes a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sochaux and Nimes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sochaux vs Nimes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sochaux's attack at 1.17x the league average against Nimes's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nimes's attack versus Sochaux's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sochaux's last 46 games and Nimes's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.41
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Sochaux xG
Total xG
2.90
1.00
Nimes xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
15%
6.67
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
3%
34.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sochaux vs Nimes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sochaux vs Nimes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sochaux and Nimes expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Sochaux and 1.00 for Nimes, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sochaux vs Nimes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Sochaux have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 24W 13D 9L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Nimes's form line: 16W 9D 21L from 46 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Sochaux are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nimes.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sochaux have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 22 home games (12W 7D 3L).
On the road, Nimes have gone 8W 3D 11L from their last 22 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sochaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sochaux are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Nimes are on 1.13 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sochaux
Blended
Nimes
Blended
Sochaux (Home) vs Nimes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sochaux
Blended
Nimes
Blended
❓ Sochaux vs Nimes Form FAQs
What form are Sochaux and Nimes in coming into this match?
Sochaux have gone 24W 13D 9L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Nimes have gone 16W 9D 21L in their last 46 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sochaux at home or Nimes away?
Sochaux's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sochaux at home: 1.95 PPG; Nimes away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Sochaux or Nimes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sochaux have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nimes in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 2 June 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sochaux's record when hosting Nimes specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sochaux
0
Draws
2
Nimes
Recent Meetings
❓ Sochaux vs Nimes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sochaux and Nimes?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Sochaux have won 2, Nimes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sochaux and Nimes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 June 2023: Nimes 3-1 Sochaux.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sochaux 41%, Nimes 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Sochaux) and 59% (Nimes).
On the defensive side: Sochaux keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Nimes in 32%; Nimes in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sochaux home games / Nimes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sochaux vs Nimes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sochaux and Nimes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sochaux's recent matches and 46% of Nimes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sochaux and Nimes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Sochaux's recent games and 59% of Nimes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sochaux and Nimes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Sochaux's recent matches and 68% of Nimes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sochaux cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nimes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat Nimes 3-1 at Stade Auguste-Bonal, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sochaux 1.90 xG and Nimes 1.00 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sochaux beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sochaux attack 1.17 / defence 0.79 against Nimes attack 1.08 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sochaux 58% | Draw 23% | Nimes 19%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sochaux 37%, Nimes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sochaux's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Nimes's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Nimes (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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