Paris FC 1-2 Rodez – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rodez at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Rodez travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris FC stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Paris FC have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stade Charléty — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Rodez have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Paris FC 1.30 PPG, Rodez 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Paris FC have won 2, Rodez 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Rodez trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 56% versus Rodez 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Paris FC 40% | Rodez 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.08 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.051 / defence 1.139 | Rodez attack 0.860 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.180. Data: 46 Paris FC games / 45 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 33% | Draw 29% | Rodez 37%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rodez are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 70% | Rodez 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 33% | Draw 29% | Rodez 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Paris FC 1.08 / Rodez 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.051 / def 1.139 | Rodez attack 0.860 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Rodez (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Rodez xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Rodez kick off?
Paris FC vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Paris FC 1 - 2 Rodez.
Where is Paris FC vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Rodez part of?
Paris FC vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 33% chance of winning, Rodez a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Paris FC and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Rodez?
Record (2 meetings): Paris FC 2W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Rodez in?
Paris FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
33%
2.99
29%
3.39
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.24
1.16
Rodez xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.16 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 14D 11L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.09 PPG from 45 outings (11W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Rodez, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Paris FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Rodez — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Paris FC's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.05 points per game from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.84 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Rodez in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Rodez
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Rodez in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 20W 14D 11L in their last 45 games (1.64 PPG), while Rodez have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Rodez away?
Paris FC's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.86 PPG; Rodez away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rodez in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Paris FC's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Paris FC
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Rodez?
From 9 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 3, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Rodez 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Rodez?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 54%, Rodez 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Paris FC and 27% for Rodez.
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Rodez in 36%; Rodez in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Paris FC's recent matches and 27% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Paris FC's recent games and 27% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Rodez tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Rodez in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rodez edge out Paris FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Paris FC 1-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.08 xG and Rodez 1.16 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against Rodez attack 0.86 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 33% | Draw 29% | Rodez 37%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 40%, Rodez 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with Rodez winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.