Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host RED Star FC 93 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Saint Etienne — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Saint Etienne's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across their last 10 games, RED Star FC 93 have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Saint Etienne are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for RED Star FC 93 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Oct 2026, ended Saint Etienne 1–0 RED Star FC 93 — a Saint Etienne win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 44% versus RED Star FC 93 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 59% | RED Star FC 93 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.73 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.337 / defence 0.606 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.061 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.318. Saint Etienne carry an above-average attack rating of 1.337 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Saint Etienne have a tight defence (rating 0.606), which is pulling RED Star FC 93's projected output down. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 46 games and RED Star FC 93's last 45.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 58% | Draw 24% | RED Star FC 93 18%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 1.72 | Draw 4.25 | RED Star FC 93 5.51. The model has a clear lean to Saint Etienne (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Saint Etienne are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 20% (last 10 home games) | RED Star FC 93 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 26 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Friday 19 March 2027 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 58% | Draw 24% | RED Star FC 93 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.73 / RED Star FC 93 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.337 / def 0.606 | RED Star FC 93 attack 1.061 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.85
RED Star FC 93 xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 kick off?
Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 19 March 2027 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
Where is Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 part of?
Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 26) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 58% chance of winning, RED Star FC 93 a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 1.34x the league average against RED Star FC 93's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RED Star FC 93's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 46 games and RED Star FC 93's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.25
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.58
0.85
RED Star FC 93 xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
3%
31.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.85 for RED Star FC 93, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 25W 8D 13L from 46 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
RED Star FC 93, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 14L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.80 PPG, RED Star FC 93 on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 16W 3D 4L from their last 23 home games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Saint Etienne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RED Star FC 93's away record stands at 12W 4D 7L across their last 23 away games, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; RED Star FC 93 are on 1.33 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs RED Star FC 93 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
RED Star FC 93
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 25W 8D 13L in their last 46 games (1.80 PPG), while RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 14L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or RED Star FC 93 away?
Saint Etienne's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 2.22 PPG; RED Star FC 93 away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or RED Star FC 93 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, RED Star FC 93 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 3 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2025. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Saint Etienne have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
0
Draws
1
RED Star FC 93
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 2, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: RED Star FC 93 0-1 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 39%, RED Star FC 93 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Saint Etienne) and 52% (RED Star FC 93). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / RED Star FC 93 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs RED Star FC 93 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 48% of RED Star FC 93's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Saint Etienne's matches and 52% of RED Star FC 93's.
Do Saint Etienne and RED Star FC 93 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 61% of RED Star FC 93's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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