📋

Poisson model favours RED Star FC 93 (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as RED Star FC 93 face Boulogne.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

RED Star FC 93 host Boulogne at Stade Bauer in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RED Star FC 93 haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

At home at Stade Bauer, RED Star FC 93 have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Boulogne — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Boulogne haven't played a Ligue 2 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

On the road, Boulogne have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

RED Star FC 93 carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of RED Star FC 93: 4 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Boulogne, with 4 draws across those contests.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The historical record gives RED Star FC 93 a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Table Context

The standings have RED Star FC 93 (4th, 58 pts) 11 places above Boulogne (15th, 36 pts) — a 22-point gap in Ligue 2.

At home this season, RED Star FC 93 have gone 7W 7D 3L. Boulogne have gone 5W 6D 6L on their travels. RED Star FC 93: Promotion Playoffs.

Trading Patterns

RED Star FC 93 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Boulogne in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 50% versus Boulogne 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 53% | Boulogne 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 1.27 xG and Boulogne 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 1.035 / defence 1.009 | Boulogne attack 0.879 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.258. Data: 33 RED Star FC 93 games / 34 Boulogne games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 38% | Draw 31% | Boulogne 31%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Boulogne 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates RED Star FC 93 as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RED Star FC 93 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 60% | Boulogne 40%.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights