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Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Guingamp beat Saint Etienne 2-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.99 xG and Guingamp 1.60 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 32%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Guingamp 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.15 PPG, Guingamp 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights