Saint Etienne 2-3 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Saint Etienne vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Saint Etienne host Guingamp at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Saint Etienne have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard this season.
Guingamp — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Saint Etienne have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Saint Etienne have won 1, Guingamp 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Saint Etienne in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 56% versus Guingamp 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 56% | Guingamp 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.99 xG and Guingamp 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.246 / defence 1.089 | Guingamp attack 1.194 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.233. Guingamp bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing Saint Etienne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Saint Etienne games / 41 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 32%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Guingamp 3.12. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Saint Etienne 90% | Guingamp 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Saint Etienne 1.99 / Guingamp 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.246 / def 1.089 | Guingamp attack 1.194 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Guingamp xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Saint Etienne 2 - 3 Guingamp.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp part of?
Saint Etienne vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 47% chance of winning, Guingamp a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Saint Etienne and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Record (4 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | Guingamp 2W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Saint Etienne's attack rating (1.25) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Saint Etienne's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
47%
2.13
22%
4.63
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
3.59
1.60
Guingamp xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.22
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
14%
7.28
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
4%
23.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.60 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 13W 8D 20L from 41 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Guingamp, meanwhile, have gone 19W 5D 17L across 41 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Saint Etienne on 1.15 PPG, Guingamp on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guingamp's away record stands at 8W 1D 11L across 20 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.56 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Guingamp
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 19W 5D 17L in their last 41 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Guingamp away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.40 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Saint Etienne's record when hosting Guingamp specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
From 6 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Guingamp have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Guingamp 1-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 60%, Guingamp 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Saint Etienne) and 60% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Guingamp?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Saint Etienne's games and 60% of Guingamp's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Saint Etienne vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Saint Etienne's matches and 60% of Guingamp's.
Do Saint Etienne and Guingamp tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guingamp defy the odds to beat Saint Etienne 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Saint Etienne 2-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 8, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.99 xG and Guingamp 1.60 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 1.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Guingamp attack 1.19 / defence 1.25, drawn from 7/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 47% | Draw 22% | Guingamp 32%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Guingamp win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 56%, Guingamp 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.15 PPG, Guingamp 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.