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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Saint Etienne.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat Saint Etienne 0-3 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.01 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.31 / defence 0.87 against Estac Troyes attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 22%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Estac Troyes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 55%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Saint Etienne's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.34 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights