Amiens 1-3 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Amiens have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Amiens have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Rodez (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Amiens against 1.00 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Amiens lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Amiens winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Rodez goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 48% versus Rodez 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Amiens 38% | Rodez 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.06 xG and Rodez 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.898 / defence 1.027 | Rodez attack 0.998 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.035. Data: 65 Amiens games / 65 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Rodez 33%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Rodez 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Rodez 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Rodez 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Amiens 1.06 / Rodez 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.898 / def 1.027 | Rodez attack 0.998 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Amiens (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Rodez xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Rodez kick off?
Amiens vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Amiens 1 - 3 Rodez.
Where is Amiens vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Rodez part of?
Amiens vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 34% chance of winning, Rodez a 33% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Amiens and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
Record (3 meetings): Amiens 1W | Draws 1 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Amiens and Rodez in?
Amiens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.90x the league average against Rodez's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (1.00x) against Amiens's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
34%
2.98
33%
3.02
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.12
1.06
Rodez xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Amiens and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Amiens and 1.06 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 24D 22L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.09 PPG from 65 outings (16W 23D 26L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Amiens against 1.09 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 13W 9D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.12 points per game from 32 outings (9W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.89 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Rodez in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 24D 22L in their last 65 games (1.25 PPG), while Rodez have gone 16W 23D 26L in their last 65 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Rodez away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Rodez away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Amiens or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Rodez in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Amiens
4
Draws
3
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Rodez?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 3, Rodez have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Rodez 3-2 Amiens.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 41%, Rodez 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Amiens) and 31% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Rodez in 34%; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; Rodez in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Amiens's recent matches and 34% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Amiens's recent games and 31% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Rodez cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Amiens 1-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 28, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.06 xG and Rodez 1.06 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rodez outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Rodez attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 34% | Draw 33% | Rodez 33%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Rodez win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Rodez 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Rodez's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.25 PPG, Rodez 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.