Rodez 2-3 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rodez at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
PAU make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Friday 26 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rodez's home record at Stade Paul Lignon: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Paul Lignon this season.
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAU's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Rodez against 1.40 for PAU. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rodez, 1 for PAU and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
PAU — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 40% versus PAU 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 28% | PAU 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 1.00 xG and PAU 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.754 / defence 0.890 | PAU attack 0.967 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.145. Rodez's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Rodez games / 74 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 34%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | PAU 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rodez at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rodez if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 50% | PAU 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Friday 26 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Rodez 1.00 / PAU 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.754 / def 0.890 | PAU attack 0.967 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Rodez (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
0.98
PAU xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs PAU kick off?
Rodez vs PAU kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 26 May 2023 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs PAU?
Rodez 2 - 3 PAU.
Where is Rodez vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs PAU part of?
Rodez vs PAU is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 35% chance of winning, PAU a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Rodez the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rodez and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
Record (3 meetings): Rodez 1W | Draws 1 | PAU 1W.
What form are Rodez and PAU in?
Rodez (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.75x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (0.97x) against Rodez's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rodez Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.16
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.99
0.98
PAU xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Rodez and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Rodez and 0.98 for PAU, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rodez's recent record stands at 20W 26D 28L from 74 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-D in the last five.
PAU, meanwhile, have gone 24W 18D 32L across 74 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Rodez against 1.22 for PAU. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rodez have managed 9W 16D 12L from 37 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PAU's away record stands at 9W 10D 18L across 37 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rodez are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.04 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and PAU in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 20W 26D 28L in their last 74 games (1.16 PPG), while PAU have gone 24W 18D 32L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or PAU away?
Rodez's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.16 PPG; PAU away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Rodez or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, PAU in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 0-5 on 14 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rodez
3
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Rodez have won 4, PAU have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 3 January 2026, when PAU 3-3 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and PAU?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rodez see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 46%, PAU 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 24% for Rodez and 38% for PAU.
On the defensive side: Rodez have failed to score in 35% of games; PAU in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Rodez's recent matches and 51% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Rodez's recent games and 38% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and PAU tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, PAU in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Rodez 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Rodez 2-3 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 37, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 1.00 xG and PAU 0.98 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 35% | Draw 32% | PAU 34%, with Rodez to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 28%, PAU 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
PAU's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.16 PPG, PAU 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.