Bordeaux vs Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Rodez encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bordeaux host Rodez at Stade Matmut-Atlantique in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bordeaux — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bordeaux at Stade Matmut-Atlantique this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rodez stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rodez's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Bordeaux have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Bordeaux have won 1, Rodez 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Bordeaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bordeaux in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Rodez in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 53% versus Rodez 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 53% | Rodez 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 1.29 xG and Rodez 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 1.103 / defence 0.717 | Rodez attack 1.046 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.148. Bordeaux's defence rating of 0.717 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Bordeaux games / 75 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 46% | Draw 29% | Rodez 25%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 4.00. Bordeaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bordeaux offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Bordeaux 50% | Rodez 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 46% | Draw 29% | Rodez 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Bordeaux 1.29 / Rodez 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 1.103 / def 0.717 | Rodez attack 1.046 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Rodez xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bordeaux vs Rodez kick off?
Bordeaux vs Rodez kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
Where is Bordeaux vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Rodez part of?
Bordeaux vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 46% chance of winning, Rodez a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bordeaux and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Bordeaux vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Rodez?
Record (1 meetings): Bordeaux 1W | Draws 0 | Rodez 0W.
What form are Bordeaux and Rodez in?
Bordeaux (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (1.10) and Rodez's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Bordeaux's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
2.15
0.86
Rodez xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.0 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.9 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.86 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 26W 22D 27L from 75 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 20W 26D 29L across 75 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bordeaux on 1.33 PPG, Rodez on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 15W 11D 11L from 37 games — 1.51 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 11W 10D 16L across 37 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bordeaux are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.93 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bordeaux and Rodez in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 26W 22D 27L in their last 75 games (1.33 PPG), while Rodez have gone 20W 26D 29L in their last 75 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Rodez away?
Bordeaux's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 1.51 PPG; Rodez away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Rodez been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rodez in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bordeaux won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Bordeaux
2
Draws
0
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Rodez?
From 3 meetings on record, Bordeaux have won 1, Rodez have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Rodez 2-2 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Rodez?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 54%, Rodez 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bordeaux) and 32% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 32%; Rodez in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bordeaux play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 35% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bordeaux vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bordeaux's recent games and 32% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Rodez tend to score early?
Bordeaux have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rodez in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bordeaux's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux and Rodez finished level at 0-0 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 38, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 1.29 xG and Rodez 0.86 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bordeaux fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 1.10 / defence 0.72 against Rodez attack 1.05 / defence 0.89, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 46% | Draw 29% | Rodez 25%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 53%, Rodez 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.33 PPG, Rodez 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.