PAU 2-6 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Nouste Camp to face PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAU have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
PAU's home record at Stade Nouste Camp: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bastia have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAU, 1.80 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAU lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 47% versus Bastia 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 41% | Bastia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.27 xG and Bastia 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.956 / defence 1.224 | Bastia attack 0.980 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.077. Data: 73 PAU games / 73 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 36% | Draw 27% | Bastia 37%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Bastia 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: PAU 40% | Bastia 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 36% | Draw 27% | Bastia 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG PAU 1.27 / Bastia 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 0.956 / def 1.224 | Bastia attack 0.980 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Bastia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bastia xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Bastia kick off?
PAU vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Bastia?
PAU 2 - 6 Bastia.
Where is PAU vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Bastia part of?
PAU vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 36% chance of winning, Bastia a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAU and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
Record (3 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Bastia 1W.
What form are PAU and Bastia in?
PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Bastia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAU's attack at 0.96x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.98x) against PAU's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
36%
2.79
27%
3.67
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
PAU xG
Total xG
2.56
1.29
Bastia xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.16
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for PAU and 1.29 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAU come into this having played 73 games, going 24W 18D 31L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Bastia sit at 1.40 PPG from 73 outings (26W 24D 23L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for PAU against 1.40 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAU's home form reads 15W 8D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Bastia have taken 1.08 points per game from 36 outings (10W 9D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAU are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.11 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Bastia in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 24W 18D 31L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Bastia have gone 26W 24D 23L in their last 73 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Bastia away?
PAU's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.47 PPG; Bastia away: 1.08 PPG.
Have PAU or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bastia won 2-6 on 20 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
PAU
5
Draws
3
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Bastia have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when PAU 2-2 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 42%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAU) and 42% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; PAU have failed to score in 31% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of PAU's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAU's recent games and 42% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Bastia tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bastia in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bastia run riot with a 2-6 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat PAU 2-6 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 36, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.27 xG and Bastia 1.29 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Bastia outscored their 1.29 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.96 / defence 1.22 against Bastia attack 0.98 / defence 1.02, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 36% | Draw 27% | Bastia 37%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 41%, Bastia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Bastia's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.23 PPG, Bastia 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.