Rodez 0-1 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rodez vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rodez host Paris FC at Stade Paul Lignon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rodez — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Rodez are significantly better at Stade Paul Lignon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Paris FC's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Paris FC — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Rodez have won 0, Paris FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–1 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Rodez in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 34% versus Paris FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 25% | Paris FC 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.93 xG and Paris FC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.774 / defence 1.223 | Paris FC attack 0.901 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.970. Rodez's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Paris FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Rodez's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Rodez games / 32 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Paris FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 40% | Paris FC 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 30% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 41% | xG Rodez 0.93 / Paris FC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.774 / def 1.223 | Paris FC attack 0.901 / def 1.237 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Paris FC xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Paris FC kick off?
Rodez vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Paris FC?
Rodez 0 - 1 Paris FC.
Where is Rodez vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Paris FC part of?
Rodez vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 30% chance of winning, Paris FC a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Rodez and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Paris FC?
Record (1 meetings): Rodez 0W | Draws 0 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Rodez and Paris FC in?
Rodez (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Paris FC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.77x the league average against Paris FC's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris FC's attack versus Rodez's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
30%
3.35
33%
3.01
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Rodez xG
Total xG
2.00
1.07
Paris FC xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.74
15%
6.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rodez and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Rodez and 1.07 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Rodez have picked up 1.03 PPG on a 7W 12D 13L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Paris FC's form line: 16W 9D 7L from 32 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rodez.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Rodez have posted 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (3W 8D 4L).
On the road, Paris FC have gone 6W 3D 6L from 15 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Rodez are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.44 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 7W 12D 13L in their last 32 games (1.03 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 16W 9D 7L in their last 32 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.13 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Rodez or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Paris FC in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Rodez and Paris FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Rodez's record when hosting Paris FC specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Rodez
4
Draws
3
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Paris FC?
From 9 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Paris FC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Rodez 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Rodez and Paris FC?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 40%, Paris FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Rodez and 40% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 40% of games; Paris FC in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Rodez's recent matches and 53% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Rodez's recent games and 40% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Paris FC tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Paris FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Rodez 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Rodez 0-1 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.93 xG and Paris FC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Rodez fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.77 / defence 1.22 against Paris FC attack 0.90 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 30% | Draw 33% | Paris FC 37%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 25%, Paris FC 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.