Nancy 0-2 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Niort fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nancy host Niort at Stade Marcel-Picot in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Nancy have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nancy have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stade Marcel-Picot — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nancy are significantly better at Stade Marcel-Picot than their overall form suggests.
Niort — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Niort have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Nancy) versus 0.60 (Niort). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Nancy, 0 for Niort and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Nancy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nancy trading profile (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Niort trading profile (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 50% versus Niort 31%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 44% | Niort 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.13 xG and Niort 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.907 / defence 1.271 | Niort attack 0.761 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 0.973 / away 0.970. Niort bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Nancy games / 32 Niort games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 39% | Draw 32% | Niort 29%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Niort 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nancy as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.07 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 30% | Niort 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 39% | Draw 32% | Niort 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Nancy 1.13 / Niort 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.907 / def 1.271 | Niort attack 0.761 / def 1.277 | league avg home 0.973 / away 0.970 • Poisson stance: Nancy (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Niort xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Niort kick off?
Nancy vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Niort?
Nancy 0 - 2 Niort.
Where is Nancy vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Niort part of?
Nancy vs Niort is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 39% chance of winning, Niort a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nancy and Niort will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Niort?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 1W | Draws 0 | Niort 0W.
What form are Nancy and Niort in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Niort (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.91) and Niort's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Niort's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
39%
2.59
32%
3.08
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Nancy xG
Total xG
2.07
0.94
Niort xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
9%
10.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Nancy and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Nancy and 0.94 for Niort, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Niort?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 32 outings, Nancy have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 8D 19L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 11W 8D 13L from 32 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D.
Put side by side, Niort are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nancy.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nancy have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
On the road, Niort have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Nancy are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Niort in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Current Season
Niort
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Niort in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 5W 8D 19L in their last 32 games (0.72 PPG), while Niort have gone 11W 8D 13L in their last 32 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Niort away?
Nancy's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.07 PPG; Niort away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nancy or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nancy have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Niort in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nancy
0
Draws
1
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Niort?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 1, Niort have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Niort last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2022, when Nancy 0-2 Niort.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nancy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 40%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Nancy) and 47% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 47% of games; Niort in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Niort?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Nancy's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Niort usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Nancy's recent games and 47% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Niort tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Niort in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Niort cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Niort beat Nancy 0-2 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.13 xG and Niort 0.94 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Niort outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.91 / defence 1.27 against Niort attack 0.76 / defence 1.28, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 39% | Draw 32% | Niort 29%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Niort win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 44%, Niort 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Niort's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Niort arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.72. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Niort (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.