Paris FC 2-2 Dijon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Paris FC vs Dijon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Dijon travel to Stade Charléty to take on Paris FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 11 April 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Paris FC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris FC's home record at Stade Charléty: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Charléty. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Paris FC are significantly better at Stade Charléty than their overall form suggests.
Dijon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Dijon have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Paris FC) versus 1.50 (Dijon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Dijon and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Paris FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Paris FC trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Dijon trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 48% versus Dijon 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 39% | Dijon 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.42 xG and Dijon 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.249 / defence 0.964 | Dijon attack 0.870 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 0.976 / away 0.943. Data: 31 Paris FC games / 31 Dijon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Paris FC 51% | Draw 29% | Dijon 20%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Dijon 5.00. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Paris FC 40% | Dijon 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Dijon | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Monday 11 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 51% | Draw 29% | Dijon 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Paris FC 1.42 / Dijon 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.249 / def 0.964 | Dijon attack 0.870 / def 1.165 | league avg home 0.976 / away 0.943 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Dijon xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Paris FC vs Dijon kick off?
Paris FC vs Dijon kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 11 April 2022 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Dijon?
Paris FC 2 - 2 Dijon.
Where is Paris FC vs Dijon being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Dijon part of?
Paris FC vs Dijon is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Dijon?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 51% chance of winning, Dijon a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Dijon?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Paris FC and Dijon will score (BTTS).
Will Paris FC vs Dijon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Dijon?
Record (1 meetings): Paris FC 1W | Draws 0 | Dijon 0W.
What form are Paris FC and Dijon in?
Paris FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Dijon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Paris FC's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Dijon's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Dijon's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.40
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.79
Dijon xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
23%
4.33
5%
20.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.3 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Dijon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Dijon expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Paris FC and 0.79 for Dijon, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Dijon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Paris FC's recent record stands at 16W 8D 7L from 31 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Dijon, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 14L across 31 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dijon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Paris FC have managed 9W 5D 1L from 15 games — 2.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dijon's away record stands at 4W 3D 8L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Paris FC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Dijon are on 1.13 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Dijon in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Current Season
Dijon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Paris FC and Dijon in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 16W 8D 7L in their last 31 games (1.81 PPG), while Dijon have gone 12W 5D 14L in their last 31 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Dijon away?
Paris FC's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 2.13 PPG; Dijon away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Dijon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Dijon in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Paris FC's record when hosting Dijon specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Paris FC
2
Draws
0
Dijon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Dijon?
From 4 meetings on record, Paris FC have won 2, Dijon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Dijon last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2023, when Dijon 1-1 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Dijon?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dijon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 47%, Dijon 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Paris FC) and 47% (Dijon).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Dijon in 33%; Dijon in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Dijon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Paris FC play Dijon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Paris FC's recent matches and 47% of Dijon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Paris FC vs Dijon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Paris FC's recent games and 47% of Dijon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Dijon tend to score early?
Paris FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Dijon in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Dijon share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC and Dijon finished level at 2-2 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.42 xG and Dijon 0.79 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dijon outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.96 against Dijon attack 0.87 / defence 1.17, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 51% | Draw 29% | Dijon 20%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 39%, Dijon 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Dijon's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dijon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.