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Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat RED Star FC 93 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Reims beat RED Star FC 93 3-2 at Stade Auguste-Delaune, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Reims 0.83 xG and RED Star FC 93 0.92 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Reims beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RED Star FC 93 outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reims attack 0.81 / defence 0.84 against RED Star FC 93 attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Reims 29% | Draw 37% | RED Star FC 93 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reims 43%, RED Star FC 93 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Reims's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Reims 1.24 PPG, RED Star FC 93 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock. Reims (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights