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Dominant PAU run riot with a 0-3 hammering of RED Star FC 93.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat RED Star FC 93 0-3 at Stade Bauer, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 1.44 xG and PAU 1.25 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 fell 1.4 short of their projected output. PAU outscored their 1.25 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 1.02 / defence 1.09 against PAU attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 54/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 42% | Draw 26% | PAU 33%, with RED Star FC 93 to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 48%, PAU 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

RED Star FC 93's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

PAU's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — RED Star FC 93 1.33 PPG, PAU 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights