Quevilly 1-1 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Valenciennes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Quevilly and Valenciennes meet at Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly at Stade Robert Diochon this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Valenciennes have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Quevilly's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Valenciennes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Quevilly, 0 for Valenciennes and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Quevilly — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Valenciennes — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 38% versus Valenciennes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Quevilly 40% | Valenciennes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.79 xG and Valenciennes 0.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.162 / defence 0.863 | Valenciennes attack 0.727 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.005. Valenciennes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Quevilly's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Quevilly games / 63 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Quevilly 64% | Draw 24% | Valenciennes 11%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Valenciennes 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Quevilly (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Quevilly are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Quevilly 60% | Valenciennes 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 64% | Draw 24% | Valenciennes 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 40% | xG Quevilly 1.79 / Valenciennes 0.63 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.162 / def 0.863 | Valenciennes attack 0.727 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.005 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
0.63
Valenciennes xG
40%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Quevilly vs Valenciennes kick off?
Quevilly vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Quevilly 1 - 1 Valenciennes.
Where is Quevilly vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Valenciennes part of?
Quevilly vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 64% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 11% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Quevilly and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Quevilly vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Valenciennes?
Record (3 meetings): Quevilly 1W | Draws 2 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Quevilly and Valenciennes in?
Quevilly (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Quevilly's attack at 1.16x the league average against Valenciennes's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.73x) against Quevilly's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.63.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
64%
1.56
24%
4.08
11%
8.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.42
0.63
Valenciennes xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
8.76
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
53%
1.88
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
2%
52.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Quevilly and 0.63 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Valenciennes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Quevilly come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 17D 25L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valenciennes sit at 1.19 PPG from 63 outings (17W 24D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Quevilly against 1.19 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Quevilly's home form reads 10W 12D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Valenciennes have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (7W 11D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Quevilly are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 0.92 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Blended
Valenciennes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Quevilly and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 17W 24D 22L in their last 63 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Valenciennes away?
Quevilly's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.35 PPG; Valenciennes away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Quevilly have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Quevilly
4
Draws
1
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Valenciennes?
From 6 meetings on record, Quevilly have won 1, Valenciennes have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Valenciennes 2-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 48%, Valenciennes 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Quevilly) and 29% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Quevilly keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Quevilly have failed to score in 36% of games; Valenciennes in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Quevilly play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Quevilly's recent matches and 42% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Quevilly vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Quevilly's recent games and 29% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Quevilly and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Quevilly have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Quevilly and Valenciennes share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly and Valenciennes finished level at 1-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.79 xG and Valenciennes 0.63 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.16 / defence 0.86 against Valenciennes attack 0.73 / defence 1.31, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 64% | Draw 24% | Valenciennes 11%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 40%, Valenciennes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Valenciennes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Quevilly 1.27 PPG, Valenciennes 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.