Nimes 2-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nimes vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Quevilly travel to Stade des Antonins to take on Nimes. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nimes — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nimes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nimes's home record at Stade des Antonins: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nimes are significantly better at Stade des Antonins than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Quevilly stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Quevilly — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nimes have won 2, Quevilly 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nimes in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Quevilly in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 53% versus Quevilly 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 52% | Quevilly 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 0.88 xG and Quevilly 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 0.952 / defence 1.333 | Quevilly attack 0.890 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.039. Quevilly's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Nimes games / 64 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nimes 25% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 43%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Quevilly 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Quevilly at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Nimes 40% | Quevilly 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade des Antonins • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 25% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Nimes 0.88 / Quevilly 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 0.952 / def 1.333 | Quevilly attack 0.890 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Quevilly xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nimes vs Quevilly kick off?
Nimes vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stade des Antonins.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Quevilly?
Nimes 2 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Nimes vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Antonins.
What competition is Nimes vs Quevilly part of?
Nimes vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 25% chance of winning, Quevilly a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Nimes and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Nimes vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Quevilly?
Record (3 meetings): Nimes 2W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Nimes and Quevilly in?
Nimes (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Quevilly (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nimes's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Quevilly's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Nimes's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
25%
4.02
32%
3.09
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Nimes xG
Total xG
2.11
1.23
Quevilly xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
7%
13.80
18%
5.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 14.9 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nimes and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Nimes and 1.23 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nimes's recent record stands at 20W 12D 32L from 64 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nimes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly, meanwhile, have gone 21W 18D 25L across 64 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nimes on 1.12 PPG, Quevilly on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nimes have managed 11W 5D 15L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Quevilly's away record stands at 10W 5D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Nimes are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nimes and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 20W 12D 32L in their last 64 games (1.12 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 21W 18D 25L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Quevilly away?
Nimes's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.23 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Nimes's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Nimes
0
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Quevilly?
From 4 meetings on record, Nimes have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nimes and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Nimes 2-0 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Quevilly?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nimes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 52%, Quevilly 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Nimes) and 36% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Nimes have failed to score in 36% of games; Quevilly in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nimes play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nimes's recent matches and 26% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nimes vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Nimes's recent games and 36% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Quevilly tend to score early?
Nimes have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nimes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Quevilly 2-0 at Stade des Antonins, Regular Season - 27, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 0.88 xG and Quevilly 1.23 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 0.95 / defence 1.33 against Quevilly attack 0.89 / defence 0.79, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 25% | Draw 32% | Quevilly 43%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Nimes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 52%, Quevilly 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Quevilly's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 1.12 PPG, Quevilly 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.