Quevilly 0-1 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Quevilly at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Quevilly vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Quevilly welcome Ajaccio to Stade Robert Diochon in Ligue 2 (matchday 2). Kick-off is Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Quevilly have gone 2W 5D 3L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Quevilly have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ajaccio — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Ajaccio's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Quevilly have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Quevilly have won 1, Ajaccio 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2022, ended Quevilly 0–0 Ajaccio — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ajaccio in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 46% versus Ajaccio 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 44% | Ajaccio 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.49 xG and Ajaccio 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.024 / defence 1.047 | Ajaccio attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.183. Data: built from Quevilly's last 39 games and Ajaccio's last 1. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 27%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 2.12 | Draw 3.85 | Ajaccio 3.73. Quevilly hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Quevilly offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though recent form (Quevilly's last 10 home games and Ajaccio's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Quevilly 70% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Quevilly 39 games, Ajaccio 1) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Quevilly vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 2 | Venue: Stade Robert Diochon • Kick-off: Saturday 12 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Quevilly 1.49 / Ajaccio 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Quevilly attack 1.024 / def 1.047 | Ajaccio attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Quevilly xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ajaccio xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Quevilly vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Quevilly vs Ajaccio kick off?
Quevilly vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 12 August 2023 at Stade Robert Diochon.
What was the final score in Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Quevilly 0 - 1 Ajaccio.
Where is Quevilly vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Diochon.
What competition is Quevilly vs Ajaccio part of?
Quevilly vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 2) (France).
Who is favourite to win Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Quevilly a 47% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Quevilly and Ajaccio will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Quevilly vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Quevilly's attack rating (1.02) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus Quevilly's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Quevilly's last 39 games and Ajaccio's last 1, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.85
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Quevilly xG
Total xG
2.54
1.05
Ajaccio xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
16.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Quevilly vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Quevilly and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Quevilly and 1.05 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Quevilly vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Quevilly have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 12W 14D 13L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Ajaccio's form line: 7W 6D 26L from 39 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Quevilly are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ajaccio.
Venue Form
On home soil, Quevilly have posted 1.42 PPG from their last 19 home games (6W 9D 4L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 3W 2D 14L from their last 19 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Quevilly are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.62 scored and 1.92 conceded.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Quevilly
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
Quevilly (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Quevilly
Early Season
Ajaccio
Early Season
❓ Quevilly vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Quevilly and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Quevilly have gone 12W 14D 13L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 7W 6D 26L in their last 39 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Quevilly at home or Ajaccio away?
Quevilly's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Quevilly at home: 1.42 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Quevilly or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Quevilly have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Quevilly's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Quevilly
2
Draws
1
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Quevilly vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Quevilly and Ajaccio?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Quevilly have won 1, Ajaccio have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Quevilly and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Ajaccio 1-1 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Quevilly 68%, Ajaccio 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Quevilly and 68% for Ajaccio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Quevilly home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Quevilly vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Quevilly and Ajaccio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Quevilly's games and 47% of Ajaccio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Quevilly and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Quevilly's matches and 68% of Ajaccio's.
Do Quevilly and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Quevilly's recent matches and 74% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ajaccio defy the odds to beat Quevilly 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Quevilly 0-1 at Stade Robert Diochon, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Quevilly 1.49 xG and Ajaccio 1.05 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Quevilly fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Quevilly attack 1.02 / defence 1.05 against Ajaccio attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Quevilly 47% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 27%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Ajaccio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Quevilly 44%, Ajaccio 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Quevilly's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ajaccio's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Ajaccio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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