PAU 0-1 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sochaux at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Sochaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
PAU and Sochaux meet at Stade Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
PAU (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 6W 0D 4L at Stade Nouste Camp — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Sochaux's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sochaux's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sochaux arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for PAU, 1 for Sochaux and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Sochaux winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PAU — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sochaux — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 44% versus Sochaux 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAU 44% | Sochaux 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.24 xG and Sochaux 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.053 / defence 1.368 | Sochaux attack 1.175 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Sochaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing PAU's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 PAU games / 34 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 28% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 46%. Fair-value odds: PAU 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Sochaux 2.17. Sochaux hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sochaux as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sochaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Sochaux 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 28% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG PAU 1.24 / Sochaux 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.053 / def 1.368 | Sochaux attack 1.175 / def 1.251 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Sochaux (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
PAU xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Sochaux xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Sochaux kick off?
PAU vs Sochaux kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Sochaux?
PAU 0 - 1 Sochaux.
Where is PAU vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Sochaux part of?
PAU vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 28% chance of winning, Sochaux a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sochaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both PAU and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Sochaux?
Record (1 meetings): PAU 0W | Draws 0 | Sochaux 1W.
What form are PAU and Sochaux in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sochaux's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (1.18x) against PAU's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sochaux Win
28%
3.59
26%
3.82
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
PAU xG
Total xG
2.90
1.65
Sochaux xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are PAU and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for PAU and 1.65 for Sochaux, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
PAU's recent record stands at 12W 6D 16L from 34 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 7L across 34 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAU heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, PAU have managed 10W 1D 6L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — PAU are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sochaux's away record stands at 8W 5D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
PAU are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.24 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Sochaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Current Season
Sochaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Sochaux in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 12W 6D 16L in their last 34 games (1.24 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 17W 10D 7L in their last 34 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Sochaux away?
PAU's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.82 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.71 PPG.
Have PAU or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Sochaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sochaux won 0-3 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAU have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
PAU
0
Draws
3
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, PAU have won 1, Sochaux have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Sochaux 2-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between PAU and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Sochaux see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 41%, Sochaux 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAU) and 53% (Sochaux).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sochaux in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of PAU's recent matches and 59% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAU's recent games and 53% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Sochaux tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sochaux edge out PAU 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sochaux beat PAU 0-1 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.24 xG and Sochaux 1.65 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAU fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.05 / defence 1.37 against Sochaux attack 1.18 / defence 1.25, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 28% | Draw 26% | Sochaux 46%, with Sochaux to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 44%, Sochaux 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sochaux's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Sochaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.