Nancy 0-3 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nancy at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nancy vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 35 as Nancy welcome Quevilly to Stade Marcel-Picot. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 April 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nancy — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Nancy at Stade Marcel-Picot this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Quevilly have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Quevilly away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nancy at 0.70 PPG versus Quevilly's 0.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Nancy's 20% rate and Quevilly's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Nancy have won 0, Quevilly 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2021, ended 1–2 with Quevilly winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nancy in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nancy 50% versus Quevilly 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nancy 41% | Quevilly 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nancy 1.08 xG and Quevilly 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nancy attack 0.836 / defence 1.307 | Quevilly attack 0.575 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 0.945 / away 1.027. Quevilly bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Nancy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Nancy games / 34 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nancy 41% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 25%. Fair-value odds: Nancy 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Quevilly 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nancy are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nancy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Nancy 20% | Quevilly 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nancy vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Picot • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nancy 41% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 37% | xG Nancy 1.08 / Quevilly 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Nancy attack 0.836 / def 1.307 | Quevilly attack 0.575 / def 1.373 | league avg home 0.945 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Nancy (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Nancy xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Quevilly xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nancy vs Quevilly kick off?
Nancy vs Quevilly kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 April 2022 at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What was the final score in Nancy vs Quevilly?
Nancy 0 - 3 Quevilly.
Where is Nancy vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Picot.
What competition is Nancy vs Quevilly part of?
Nancy vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nancy vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Nancy a 41% chance of winning, Quevilly a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Nancy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nancy vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Nancy and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Nancy vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Quevilly?
Record (1 meetings): Nancy 0W | Draws 0 | Quevilly 1W.
What form are Nancy and Quevilly in?
Nancy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Quevilly (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nancy's attack rating (0.84) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Nancy's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.2%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nancy Win
41%
2.42
34%
2.95
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Nancy xG
Total xG
1.86
0.77
Quevilly xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
19%
5.24
8%
11.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nancy vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Nancy and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Nancy and 0.77 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Nancy vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nancy come into this having played 34 games, going 5W 9D 20L for 0.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.00 PPG from 34 outings (8W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nancy on 0.71 PPG, Quevilly on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nancy's home form reads 4W 4D 8L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 0.88 points per game from 16 outings (4W 2D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Nancy are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 0.76 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nancy
Current Season
Quevilly
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nancy and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Nancy have gone 5W 9D 20L in their last 34 games (0.71 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nancy at home or Quevilly away?
Nancy's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nancy at home: 1.00 PPG; Quevilly away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nancy and Quevilly runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Nancy
0
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nancy and Quevilly?
From 2 meetings on record, Nancy have won 0, Quevilly have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nancy and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2022, when Nancy 0-3 Quevilly.
Who has won more matches between Nancy and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nancy see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nancy 38%, Quevilly 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nancy) and 44% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Nancy have failed to score in 50% of games; Quevilly in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nancy home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nancy play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nancy's recent matches and 38% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nancy vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nancy's recent games and 44% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nancy and Quevilly tend to score early?
Nancy have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Quevilly run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nancy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Quevilly beat Nancy 0-3 at Stade Marcel-Picot, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nancy 1.08 xG and Quevilly 0.77 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nancy fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Quevilly outscored their 0.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nancy attack 0.84 / defence 1.31 against Quevilly attack 0.57 / defence 1.37, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nancy 41% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 25%, with Nancy to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Quevilly win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nancy 41%, Quevilly 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nancy's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Quevilly's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nancy 0.71 PPG, Quevilly 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Quevilly win broke the near-deadlock. Nancy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.