Guingamp 3-0 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs PAU fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Guingamp host PAU at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Guingamp at Stade du Roudourou this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Guingamp register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, PAU in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Guingamp have won 0, PAU 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Guingamp in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 61% versus PAU 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 42% | PAU 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.40 xG and PAU 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.152 / defence 1.385 | PAU attack 0.715 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 0.934 / away 1.036. PAU bring a strong defensive rating of 1.296 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Guingamp games / 33 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 45% | Draw 28% | PAU 27%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | PAU 3.70. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 80% | PAU 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 45% | Draw 28% | PAU 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Guingamp 1.40 / PAU 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.152 / def 1.385 | PAU attack 0.715 / def 1.296 | league avg home 0.934 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAU xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs PAU kick off?
Guingamp vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 19 April 2022 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Guingamp 3 - 0 PAU.
Where is Guingamp vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs PAU part of?
Guingamp vs PAU is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 45% chance of winning, PAU a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Guingamp and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
Record (1 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 0 | PAU 1W.
What form are Guingamp and PAU in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. PAU (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.15) and PAU's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
45%
2.24
28%
3.51
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.42
1.02
PAU xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Guingamp and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.02 for PAU, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Guingamp come into this having played 33 games, going 11W 12D 10L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.27 PPG from 33 outings (12W 6D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.36 PPG, PAU on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Guingamp's home form reads 6W 6D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 0.69 points per game from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of PAU's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Guingamp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.03 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guingamp have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and PAU in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 11W 12D 10L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while PAU have gone 12W 6D 15L in their last 33 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or PAU away?
Guingamp's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.50 PPG; PAU away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2022, when Guingamp won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Guingamp's record when hosting PAU specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Guingamp
1
Draws
4
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and PAU?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 5, PAU have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when PAU 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and PAU?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PAU see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Guingamp at 81%, PAU at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Guingamp) and 38% (PAU).
On the defensive side: PAU in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play PAU?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 81% of Guingamp's games and 50% of PAU's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guingamp vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and PAU tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAU in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PAU.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat PAU 3-0 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.40 xG and PAU 1.02 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PAU landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.15 / defence 1.39 against PAU attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 45% | Draw 28% | PAU 27%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 42%, PAU 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
PAU's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.36 PPG, PAU 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. PAU (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.