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Shock result as PAU defy the odds to beat Guingamp 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Guingamp 2-1 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.22 xG and Guingamp 1.54 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.97 / defence 1.34 against Guingamp attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 28% | Draw 29% | Guingamp 43%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual PAU win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Guingamp 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Guingamp's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.31 PPG, Guingamp 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights