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Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estac Troyes beat PAU 0-2 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. PAU fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 0.88 / defence 1.09 against Estac Troyes attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 52%, Estac Troyes 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Estac Troyes's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.33 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights