🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Estac Troyes travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 7 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

PAU — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stade Nouste Camp, PAU have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Estac Troyes have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: PAU 1.40 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for PAU, 1 for Estac Troyes and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Estac Troyes winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

PAU in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Estac Troyes 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 52% | Estac Troyes 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.01 xG and Estac Troyes 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 0.875 / defence 1.092 | Estac Troyes attack 0.918 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.061. Data: 63 PAU games / 63 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 34% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 36%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights