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Dominant Dunkerque run riot with a 0-3 hammering of PAU.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dunkerque beat PAU 0-3 at Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.36 xG and Dunkerque 0.88 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. PAU fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Dunkerque outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.12 / defence 0.90 against Dunkerque attack 0.76 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 48% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 24%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Dunkerque win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 48%, Dunkerque 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Dunkerque's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.43 PPG, Dunkerque 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dunkerque win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dunkerque (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights