🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates PAU at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAU vs Dunkerque encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

PAU host Dunkerque at Nouste Camp in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, PAU have posted 6W 1D 3L at Nouste Camp — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Dunkerque have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dunkerque's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

PAU are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

Dunkerque have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 6 encounters against PAU's 0 victories.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Dunkerque have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

In-Play Profile

PAU in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).

Dunkerque in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 52% versus Dunkerque 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 48% | Dunkerque 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.36 xG and Dunkerque 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.121 / defence 0.904 | Dunkerque attack 0.761 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.285. Data: 44 PAU games / 44 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: PAU 48% | Draw 28% | Dunkerque 24%. Fair-value odds: PAU 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Dunkerque 4.17. PAU hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

Dunkerque lead the H2H ledger, but PAU carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Dunkerque 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights