PAU vs Ajaccio – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Ajaccio 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PAU beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.47 xG and Ajaccio 0.59 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.04 / defence 0.89 against Ajaccio attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it PAU 59% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 15%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Ajaccio 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

PAU's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Ajaccio's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights